The average consumer in the United Kingdom has likely been feeling the pinch when purchasing essential day-to-day items in the supermarket. During a recent survey, a large share of respondents stated that their
over the last month. This figure peaked at 91 percent in August 2022 and was recently recorded at 59 percent in July 2025. Despite this decrease, just over half of the survey population still reported cost increases. Food is one of the hardest-hit categories during this period of
. Prices of
increased by a record high of 19.1 percent in March 2023 when compared to 2022. In July 2025, food prices had increased by 4.9 percent, marking the fastest rise in grocery staple prices for 18 months.
Why are prices rising?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine remains a key contributor to rising prices of everyday essentials in the UK. Together,
Russia and Ukraine accounted for 53 percent of the global trade of sunflower oil and seeds and 27 percent of the global wheat trade in 2020. Exports have been hampered since the beginning of the conflict, pushing up the prices of sunflower oil and wheat-based products.
Increased energy prices across Europe have also pushed up costs for food producers and retailers.
Other major factors have also contributed to the increase in food prices. Droughts in the UK have reduced domestic crop yields, while extreme weather in other countries has driven up global wholesale prices for key commodities such as
coffee beans and
cocoa. Additionally, basic staples such as eggs and butter have seen significant price increases due to a combination of tight supplies and increased demand. Rising labour costs driven by increases in the minimum wage and broader employment expenses have also added pressure on producers and retailers. Furthermore, post‑Brexit trade barriers continue to create friction, increase costs, and cause delays in imports.
How are consumers reacting?
When surveyed in July 2025, almost three-quarters of surveyed respondents in the UK were
expecting grocery prices to increase even more. This figure peaked at 81 percent in 2022. Saving by reducing at-home food waste and purchasing mostly store brands were some of the
top ways in which consumers were cutting food shopping costs in 2025. Just over one-third of surveyed baby boomers in the UK stated that they had
switched to a private label from name brand in the past year, making them the generation most likely to do so. Generation Z were the least likely to change their brand preference.
The knock-on effect: Discount supermarket boom
The supermarket landscape in the United Kingdom was traditionally dominated by the big four players: Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, and Morrisons. In September 2022, discount supermarket chain
Aldi took over fourth place for the first time, signaling a shift in consumer preferences. In 2023, Aldi's market share hit double digits for the first time. Lidl and Aldi offered the
lowest price for an average shopping basket in the UK in 2025, clearly making them a popular option for the thrifty food shopper. It is yet to be seen if Aldi and Lidl can continue to climb the supermarket ranks in the UK as the food inflation rate slows. If they are successful and continue to attract more and more UK shoppers, the
share of new grocery stores opened by discount retail brands may continue to rise from an already impressive 86 percent in 2024.
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